Today, the Big Trucking Tuesday (BTT) series heads back in time to Old Atlanta, the fan-favorite, pre-repave 1.54‑mile track known for its abrasive surface, multiple racing grooves, and tire‑eating character. With the race taking place under the midday sun, expect track temperatures to soar and tire wear to become a major storyline. If the previous six visits are any indication, race fans and drivers alike should expect a day full of strategic pit calls, late‑race drama, and tight racing all the way to the checkered flag.

Parity at its Peak

Old Atlanta has never favored any one driver. Remarkably, each of the six previous races held here produced a different winner: AJ Binish, Christopher Smorol, Nathan Mowrer, Jared Kelly, Justin Gann, and Jameson Miller—showcasing the track’s versatility and unpredictable nature.

Drivers Riding Momentum into Today

AJ Binish rolls into today’s race as the hottest driver on the circuit. Across the first three points races of the current season—Kentucky, Pocono, and Bristol—Binish boasts an incredible average finish of 1.5. He’s led 61% of all laps this season and, perhaps most impressively, remains incident-free. He’s executing at an elite level reminiscent of NASCAR’s Kyle Larson during his 2021 championship run.

Joseph Vulpis is another driver capturing headlines, combining both form and history. Vulpis has posted a solid 3.7 average finish in the season’s opening three events, winning at Bristol and running strongly at Pocono and Kentucky. His remarkable Old Atlanta average finish of 2.5 over two prior starts positions him as a clear contender today.

David Owens has quietly produced a strong season so far, with a victory at Pocono and a consistent presence at the front. Though Owens hasn’t dominated any single race, he’s managed laps-led credits in every outing, proving his adaptability and consistency—a recipe well-suited to Old Atlanta’s demands.

Lap‑Leader Curse and Valley’s Redemption Arc

Jaron Valley’s storyline this season could be described simply as “so close, yet so far.” Despite leading an impressive 29% of all laps this season (95 laps total), Valley has yet to secure a win. This inability to convert pace into trophies mirrors real‑world scenarios—think Kevin Harvick’s dominating yet ultimately unsuccessful performances at Old Atlanta before the repave.

Today, Valley looks to shed this unwanted narrative and convert speed into victory. Old Atlanta’s history of late‑race shakeups offers him the ideal setting for a breakthrough.

The Importance of Staying Clean

Historical data from Old Atlanta highlights a strong correlation between fewer incident points and higher finishes. With an average of 3.7 incidents per driver historically, those who avoid trouble benefit significantly. David Brenner embodies this clean‑driving ideal, averaging just 1.2 incidents per start over five appearances at Old Atlanta, scoring top‑10 finishes every single time. If Brenner hits the grid today, expect his methodical and incident‑free style to keep him in contention.

Big Movers and Late Closers

Old Atlanta rewards drivers adept at managing tire wear, navigating traffic, and capitalizing late. Chuck Kiger and Steven Neal stand out as exceptional movers, averaging over 10 positions gained per race. Neal, in particular, has made a series‑leading 91 passes in Old Atlanta races, with several key moves occurring in the closing laps. Expect both drivers to leverage late‑race cautions and restarts, moving forward aggressively if opportunities arise.

Chris Smith also has a reputation as a late closer, making an impressive 27% of his passes after lap 75. If the race sees a late caution bunching the field, Smith could become a major factor in the final outcome.

Strategic Shifts and Tire Tactics

Today’s race will highlight strategic versatility. Drivers and teams must balance short‑run speed against the track’s brutal tire wear. Historically, the fastest lap rarely guarantees victory here—only two of the previous six winners recorded the fastest lap of the race.

Pit strategy also emerges as critical, especially if caution counts remain moderate. Historically, Old Atlanta has averaged between four and seven cautions per event, meaning green‑flag pit stops and tire management will likely dictate late‑race scenarios.

Pole Position Power?

Qualifying matters, but not decisively. The correlation between starting position and finishing order at Old Atlanta historically sits at +0.51. Notably, only one of the previous six winners came from the pole position (Justin Gann). Today, qualifying at the front offers the advantage of clean air initially, but it’s by no means a guaranteed path to victory.

Real‑World NASCAR Comparisons

Fans familiar with NASCAR’s Cup Series will recognize similarities in today’s Old Atlanta event. The track’s worn‑out surface resembles pre‑repave Atlanta races in NASCAR, where tire strategy and careful resource management often decided outcomes more than raw speed. Today’s BTT event may echo iconic moments like Jimmie Johnson’s tire‑management masterclasses or Kevin Harvick’s dominant runs that frustratingly fell short.

Storylines to Follow Today:

• Can AJ Binish maintain perfection?
• Will Joseph Vulpis leverage history and momentum for a second victory this season?
• Does Jaron Valley finally break through?
• Will a new winner emerge to continue Old Atlanta’s unparalleled parity?
• Is today the day for a classic late‑race tire gamble or green‑flag pit strategy gamble?

Predictions and What to Watch For:

Expect the race to feature strategic patience early, aggressive passing as tires degrade, and a frantic scramble in the closing laps. Binish, Vulpis, Owens, and Valley each bring a compelling narrative and clear pathways to victory. The mid‑pack specialists like Kiger, Neal, and Smith will keep fans on their toes, ready to pounce if the leaders falter.

In a season that has already given fans three different winners in three races, Old Atlanta promises yet another twist to the unfolding season 12 championship drama.

Today, under the midday sun at Old Atlanta, history awaits. Will we see yet another new winner, or can someone finally tame the abrasive old beast for a second time?

Fans, buckle up—Big Trucking Tuesday is about to deliver another classic.