As the BPC Season 13 heads to the notoriously tough Dover Motor Speedway, the historical data suggests that the “Monster Mile” could be a pivotal battleground in the championship fight. Here’s a preview of what to expect based on the drivers’ past performances at this track.

The Favorites: A Two-Horse Race

The data points to a likely showdown between the top two drivers in the championship standings, as both Jason Landry and David Medina Sr. have exceptional records at Dover. They are not only leading the championship but are also ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively for historical performance at this track.

Driver	Starts	Avg Finish	Wins	Top 5s	Avg Rating
Jason Landry	2	2.5	0	2	114.6
David Medina Sr.	3	6.3	1	2	114.5

• Jason Landry (Championship Leader): Landry has been incredibly consistent at the Monster Mile, boasting an impressive average finish of 2.5 and finishing in the top 5 in both of his previous starts. While he hasn’t won here yet, his high average rating and ability to stay at the front make him a prime candidate to extend his championship lead.
• David Medina Sr. (2nd in Standings): Medina is the only one of the top contenders with a previous win at Dover. His average rating is nearly identical to Landry’s, proving he has the pace to match the leader. This race presents a golden opportunity for Medina to claw back some of the 65-point deficit.

The Spoilers: Watch Out for the Specialists

While the spotlight is on the leaders, other drivers with strong Dover histories could play a crucial role in the outcome and disrupt the championship battle.

• Christopher Smorol: With the highest average rating (123.2) at Dover, a win, and an outstanding average finish of 1.5 in two starts, Smorol is arguably the top “Dover specialist” in the field. He could easily steal a victory and take maximum points away from the title contenders.
• Justin Malarkey: Another former Dover winner, Malarkey has a solid record with 2 top-5s in 3 starts and a high average rating of 110.3. He is a definite threat for a podium finish.

Championship Implications

The upcoming race at Dover is set to be a critical juncture in the season.

• Advantage Landry? Landry’s remarkable consistency at this track suggests he’s unlikely to have a bad race, putting immense pressure on his rivals. Another top-3 finish for Landry could make the points gap feel insurmountable.
• Medina’s Moment? This is a track where Medina has proven he can win. To close the championship gap, he likely needs a victory and for a few of the “spoilers” to finish between him and Landry.
• The Other Contenders: For David Owens3, Brandon Shelton2, and Nick Mills, who have historically weaker stats at Dover, this will be a race focused on damage limitation. Their goal will be to secure a top-10 finish and avoid losing too much ground to the leaders.

Given the data, expect a tense and strategic race at the front. The duel between Landry and Medina, complicated by a field of strong Dover specialists, will make for must-watch racing.

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The Final Four: Mid Season Madness

Matchup 1: The Battle for the Top 5

This matchup pits two drivers who are neck-and-neck in the standings, separated by just a handful of points. Their performance at Dover could be key to breaking the deadlock.

Tale of the Tape: Nick Mills vs. Brandon Shelton2

Metric	Nick Mills	Brandon Shelton2	Edge
Current Position	5th	4th	Shelton
Total Points	1,075	1,081	Shelton
Season Wins	1	0	Mills
Season Top 5s	3	4	Shelton
Dover Avg Finish	9.0	11.0	Mills
Dover Top 5s	0	1	Shelton
Dover Avg Rating	94.7	88.0	Mills

Analysis: This is a fascinatingly close matchup. Brandon Shelton2 holds a slight edge in the overall season standings, thanks to his consistency in securing top-5 and top-10 finishes. However, Nick Mills is the only one of the two with a win this season, proving he can find his way to victory lane.

When looking at their history at Dover, the advantage swings to Nick Mills. He has a better average finish and a significantly higher average rating at the track, suggesting he is more comfortable and faster at the Monster Mile. While Shelton has managed to secure a top-5 finish here in the past, Mills’ overall performance has been stronger.

Verdict: This is a true toss-up. Shelton has had the better season, but Nick Mills has the historical edge at Dover. If past performance at this specific track is the main indicator, Mills should have a stronger run. This could be the race where he surpasses Shelton in the standings.

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Matchup 2: The Contender vs. The Surger

This matchup features the current #2 in the standings, a proven championship contender, against the driver who has recently surged into the top 3.

Tale of the Tape: David Medina Sr. vs. David Owens3

Metric	David Medina Sr.	David Owens3	Edge
Current Position	2nd	3rd	Medina
Total Points	1,190	1,098	Medina
Season Wins	2	1	Medina
Season Top 5s	6	4	Medina
Dover Avg Finish	6.3	15.5	Medina
Dover Wins	1	0	Medina
Dover Avg Rating	114.5	88.0	Medina

Analysis: The numbers here tell a clear story. David Medina Sr. holds a significant advantage across the board. He leads David Owens3 in every major season-long statistical category, including points, wins, and top-5 finishes.

The gap between them becomes even more pronounced when looking at their Dover history. Medina is a former winner at the track and one of the highest-rated drivers in the field here, with an excellent average finish of 6.3. In stark contrast, Dover appears to be a challenging track for David Owens3, who has a poor average finish of 15.5 and a much lower average rating.

Verdict: While Owens has had great momentum recently, the historical data points to a dominant performance from David Medina Sr. in this matchup. Medina is not only the superior driver on paper this season but also a specialist at this track. Expect Medina to finish well ahead of Owens and potentially use this race to solidify his #2 position in the standings while trying to close the gap to the leader.

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